Two of my kids ride a short special ed bus - it has capacity for like 30 students but only 3 ride in the morning, but it requires 2 workers (driver plus an aide). I imagine that AVs would be more economical for this purpose too, rather than using a full special ed bus for every load of special needs kids you could have a regular vehicle servicing these small routes (when no one needed wheelchair lift) and just the aide working.
This is a perfect use case! Like, almost too perfect. A four- or six-seat AV with an aide will cost significantly less than a 30-seat bus plus driver plus aide, probably within two years.
Here in Los Angeles, lots of kids were showing up at the fancy Westside private schools each morning in Waymos until the California Gig Workers Union filed a complaint with the CPUC to get Waymo to enforce rules blocking minors.
My intuition is that there's no escaping one child per vehicle in the AV future, not least because if school districts won't do it then parents will probably do it for them.
This is more than just likely; it is a near certainty unless regulated or demand-priced (good luck). And it generates incremental tele-oversight jobs that are currently unrecognized as a thing at all. See chapter 8.3 in The End of Driving (2026) Grush, Niles, Miller
I think for AV school buses (and public AV buses) we should lean heavily into replacing the driver but largely keeping the staff headcount. It makes for less opposition from labor and emphasizes improving the quality of the service. Having an adult on the bus who can actually watch the kids or having a transit authority staff member who can keep the bus/train safe and clean is going to make more people comfortable using the service.
AV school buses would be required to stop at railroad crossings, behind the limit line, regardless of whether a train is approaching or not. They would also be required to not stop on railroad tracks and be required to completely clear the crossing before crossing over it. Before proceeding across, it must be known ahead of time that the bus is able to fully clear the crossing. Once on the other side of the crossing, should a stop be necessary due to say stopped traffic ahead, it must be determined beforehand that there is enough room for the bus to completely fit between the back of the stopped traffic and the railroad crossing, sans any part of the bus extending onto the crossing itself. It is important to note that moving trains can take a mile or more to come to a complete stop once the train’s emergency brakes have been applied. As it relates, the AV school bus must perform in a way that protects student lives, and does not put them at risk of being involved in a school bus versus train collision or crash. Whether a bus is occupied or empty, the bottom line is that school buses always observe all road-safety protocols. And, if at all possible, alternate routes should be identified and utilized such that no school bus, human-driver-driven or automated, has to cross railroad tracks at grade. In other words, buses should avoid having to directly cross railroad tracks at highway/railroad grade-crossing intersections, that is, if such situation can be avoided. Infrastructure (bridges) where present, enable motor vehicles to either pass over or under railroad tracks. These are alternatively known as grade-separated intersections.
Two of my kids ride a short special ed bus - it has capacity for like 30 students but only 3 ride in the morning, but it requires 2 workers (driver plus an aide). I imagine that AVs would be more economical for this purpose too, rather than using a full special ed bus for every load of special needs kids you could have a regular vehicle servicing these small routes (when no one needed wheelchair lift) and just the aide working.
This is a perfect use case! Like, almost too perfect. A four- or six-seat AV with an aide will cost significantly less than a 30-seat bus plus driver plus aide, probably within two years.
well we're also going to need our fleet of AI agents to assign vehicles and personnel dynamically too, naturally
Here in Los Angeles, lots of kids were showing up at the fancy Westside private schools each morning in Waymos until the California Gig Workers Union filed a complaint with the CPUC to get Waymo to enforce rules blocking minors.
My intuition is that there's no escaping one child per vehicle in the AV future, not least because if school districts won't do it then parents will probably do it for them.
This is more than just likely; it is a near certainty unless regulated or demand-priced (good luck). And it generates incremental tele-oversight jobs that are currently unrecognized as a thing at all. See chapter 8.3 in The End of Driving (2026) Grush, Niles, Miller
Good piece Andrew.
I think for AV school buses (and public AV buses) we should lean heavily into replacing the driver but largely keeping the staff headcount. It makes for less opposition from labor and emphasizes improving the quality of the service. Having an adult on the bus who can actually watch the kids or having a transit authority staff member who can keep the bus/train safe and clean is going to make more people comfortable using the service.
AV school buses would be required to stop at railroad crossings, behind the limit line, regardless of whether a train is approaching or not. They would also be required to not stop on railroad tracks and be required to completely clear the crossing before crossing over it. Before proceeding across, it must be known ahead of time that the bus is able to fully clear the crossing. Once on the other side of the crossing, should a stop be necessary due to say stopped traffic ahead, it must be determined beforehand that there is enough room for the bus to completely fit between the back of the stopped traffic and the railroad crossing, sans any part of the bus extending onto the crossing itself. It is important to note that moving trains can take a mile or more to come to a complete stop once the train’s emergency brakes have been applied. As it relates, the AV school bus must perform in a way that protects student lives, and does not put them at risk of being involved in a school bus versus train collision or crash. Whether a bus is occupied or empty, the bottom line is that school buses always observe all road-safety protocols. And, if at all possible, alternate routes should be identified and utilized such that no school bus, human-driver-driven or automated, has to cross railroad tracks at grade. In other words, buses should avoid having to directly cross railroad tracks at highway/railroad grade-crossing intersections, that is, if such situation can be avoided. Infrastructure (bridges) where present, enable motor vehicles to either pass over or under railroad tracks. These are alternatively known as grade-separated intersections.