this is one of the clearest explanations I’ve seen for why robotaxis feel both revolutionary and behind schedule at the same time. Mining and ag solved autonomy in controlled, high-stakes, high-margin environments with clear liability and brutal economics. Public roads are the final boss level: unpredictable humans, weather, mixed traffic, and fragmented regulation
my takeaway, it's cost driven, which means cheap microtransit EV/AI solutions are 5-10 years away. The other is in depth and continual data collection and optimization on source/destination to optimize services.
Ottawa's upgrade from an optimized express bus system to an LRT/local fixed city bus route model has failed (src/dst time trippled in some cases) as the design metric was land, construction and operations costs with effecvely no consideration for src/dst time and reliability. Another factor is the LRT assumptions included Central Ottawa employment vs WFH. A related problem is lack of dedicated bus lanes or BRT routes, where self driving EVs jave a speed/time advantage vs personal car
Local micro transit/mobilty client combinations sound like a natural particularly with the shift to senior dominate demographics.
Traval needs and are always changing, including the cost of provate vehicles and insurance. I suspect city/suburb transportation will be very different in 2036.
Using AI for vehicles providing point to point personal transport is a missed opportunity, in that this does nothing to decrease road traffic (reportedly adds to it) vs a last mile/local on demand transit system that could leverage and encourage BRT routes with small shared ride vehicles of 4 to 16 people. Taxi style ride share is not cheap, still has wait times in congestion periods and public transit is typically inconvenient, slow, infrequent & sparse in less than major city density.
Case in point is Ottawa, Canada.
The killer for this type of on-demand shared transit approach with human drivers and deisel vehicles are driver and maintenance costs. EV's, automation and bus/rideshare lanes could transform transportation, but not with a 1 for 1 for one replacement of human driven 1 to 4 passenger taxis with AI versions.
this is one of the clearest explanations I’ve seen for why robotaxis feel both revolutionary and behind schedule at the same time. Mining and ag solved autonomy in controlled, high-stakes, high-margin environments with clear liability and brutal economics. Public roads are the final boss level: unpredictable humans, weather, mixed traffic, and fragmented regulation
my takeaway, it's cost driven, which means cheap microtransit EV/AI solutions are 5-10 years away. The other is in depth and continual data collection and optimization on source/destination to optimize services.
Ottawa's upgrade from an optimized express bus system to an LRT/local fixed city bus route model has failed (src/dst time trippled in some cases) as the design metric was land, construction and operations costs with effecvely no consideration for src/dst time and reliability. Another factor is the LRT assumptions included Central Ottawa employment vs WFH. A related problem is lack of dedicated bus lanes or BRT routes, where self driving EVs jave a speed/time advantage vs personal car
Local micro transit/mobilty client combinations sound like a natural particularly with the shift to senior dominate demographics.
Traval needs and are always changing, including the cost of provate vehicles and insurance. I suspect city/suburb transportation will be very different in 2036.
Using AI for vehicles providing point to point personal transport is a missed opportunity, in that this does nothing to decrease road traffic (reportedly adds to it) vs a last mile/local on demand transit system that could leverage and encourage BRT routes with small shared ride vehicles of 4 to 16 people. Taxi style ride share is not cheap, still has wait times in congestion periods and public transit is typically inconvenient, slow, infrequent & sparse in less than major city density.
Case in point is Ottawa, Canada.
The killer for this type of on-demand shared transit approach with human drivers and deisel vehicles are driver and maintenance costs. EV's, automation and bus/rideshare lanes could transform transportation, but not with a 1 for 1 for one replacement of human driven 1 to 4 passenger taxis with AI versions.
I am less convinced than you seem to be:
https://www.changinglanesnewsletter.com/p/microtransit-doesnt-scale
https://www.changinglanesnewsletter.com/p/driving-automation-and-transit