I definitely agree with the overall sentiment, but the specific use case of needing to temporarily store things in a car could easily be handled by allowing you to reserve an autonomous vehicle for a period of time, and release it once your done. If this is only needed occasionally it should still be much cheaper than car ownership.
WRT to car seats - busses don't have car seats, and people are happy to take their children on them. I wonder if in a world where autonomous vehicles are much safer than normal cars we might similarly stop using car seats on them.
Mostly I expect that people who grow up using autonomous vehicles will not see a need to buy a private vehicle and will adapt to all these issues, whilst those who already have private vehicles will be loath to give them up.
This specific use case could also have been handled in a more obvious way: I could have just rented a room in the hotel, which I have done in the past. But the cost of that was exorbitant relative to the option I took. I expect the cost of reserving a robotaxi for my personal use all day would have fared similarly.
This is a brilliant breakdown. I feel like the more dramatic predictions abut self-driving car adoption fail to account for the details of how people actually spend their time and worry about risk as you do here.
It will be interesting to see how preferences evolve over the long run though. Once full self-driving technology is broadly available and trusted, how many parents will still choose to go through the (at times harrowing) process of teaching their kids how to drive and the higher insurance costs that entails? And how many kids will be interested?
On the other hand, would owning a car and knowing how to drive become even more of a status symbol than it is today?
As a non-car owner myself, I feel like I've made the rational calculation that the cost and hassle of owning a car in urban Chicago aren't worth the occasional benefits I might get out of it. But I am less influenced by the social norm of "you need to own a car" than most people are, so it will be interesting to see how that norm evolves in the future.
I would agree that this norm is probably a durable one wherever it already exists, but new generations may question existing norms as they have in the past.
To be clear, over the long run, preferences will evolve, just as my attitudes towards e-books over regular books has changed in my lifetime, or how I grew up indifferent to the absence of operators in elevators. But in the long run, we're all dead, which is why the triumphalists sell us stories of radical change in the next ten years. Those stories are more interesting, but they're wrong; and that's the point of this piece, to puncture the hype.
I meant look at the whole chart of years, not just until first quarter of 2024. Also, some of the those numbers include plain hybrids, which aren't really EVs, imo. They run on gas. Even many plug-in hybrids have ease of mind of gas backup. Electric only vehicles have close to plateaued. They are behind projections that Canadian government was planning around.
I understood what you meant. But the trendline is clear: EV take-up is increasing year over year. The dip in the past four quarters is noteworthy, but over the long timescale the trend is increasing marketshare.
I'm not sure when or where this place is where all the vehicles will be electric but it's unlikely to be the United States or Canada within 25 years. Might even line up with when self driving becomes safe and widespread enough to even think or worry about this. I have my doubts even then.
I definitely agree with the overall sentiment, but the specific use case of needing to temporarily store things in a car could easily be handled by allowing you to reserve an autonomous vehicle for a period of time, and release it once your done. If this is only needed occasionally it should still be much cheaper than car ownership.
WRT to car seats - busses don't have car seats, and people are happy to take their children on them. I wonder if in a world where autonomous vehicles are much safer than normal cars we might similarly stop using car seats on them.
Mostly I expect that people who grow up using autonomous vehicles will not see a need to buy a private vehicle and will adapt to all these issues, whilst those who already have private vehicles will be loath to give them up.
This specific use case could also have been handled in a more obvious way: I could have just rented a room in the hotel, which I have done in the past. But the cost of that was exorbitant relative to the option I took. I expect the cost of reserving a robotaxi for my personal use all day would have fared similarly.
This is a brilliant breakdown. I feel like the more dramatic predictions abut self-driving car adoption fail to account for the details of how people actually spend their time and worry about risk as you do here.
It will be interesting to see how preferences evolve over the long run though. Once full self-driving technology is broadly available and trusted, how many parents will still choose to go through the (at times harrowing) process of teaching their kids how to drive and the higher insurance costs that entails? And how many kids will be interested?
On the other hand, would owning a car and knowing how to drive become even more of a status symbol than it is today?
As a non-car owner myself, I feel like I've made the rational calculation that the cost and hassle of owning a car in urban Chicago aren't worth the occasional benefits I might get out of it. But I am less influenced by the social norm of "you need to own a car" than most people are, so it will be interesting to see how that norm evolves in the future.
I would agree that this norm is probably a durable one wherever it already exists, but new generations may question existing norms as they have in the past.
To be clear, over the long run, preferences will evolve, just as my attitudes towards e-books over regular books has changed in my lifetime, or how I grew up indifferent to the absence of operators in elevators. But in the long run, we're all dead, which is why the triumphalists sell us stories of radical change in the next ten years. Those stories are more interesting, but they're wrong; and that's the point of this piece, to puncture the hype.
This will not happen. People aren't buying them. The percentages are far behind projections.
Stuff 25 years away may as well be 100 or 1000. Lots can change by then.
I heard this same stuff a decade ago and EV sales have flatlined.
With respect, that isn't true.
https://cms.electricautonomy.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/2024-Q1-chart-ZEVs-sales-data-SandP-Global-update-optimized.png
Check the rest of 2024 and so far in 2025. Also, check if exclusively EV, hybrid or plug-in hybrid.
Why limit the evidence? The trend line is clear.
I meant look at the whole chart of years, not just until first quarter of 2024. Also, some of the those numbers include plain hybrids, which aren't really EVs, imo. They run on gas. Even many plug-in hybrids have ease of mind of gas backup. Electric only vehicles have close to plateaued. They are behind projections that Canadian government was planning around.
I understood what you meant. But the trendline is clear: EV take-up is increasing year over year. The dip in the past four quarters is noteworthy, but over the long timescale the trend is increasing marketshare.
https://electricautonomy.ca/data-trackers/ev-sales-data/2025-06-16/q1-2025-statscan-ev-registrations/
Could be noteworthy, could be the new trend. Certainly makes questionable government projections of 20% EVs for next year.
I'm not sure when or where this place is where all the vehicles will be electric but it's unlikely to be the United States or Canada within 25 years. Might even line up with when self driving becomes safe and widespread enough to even think or worry about this. I have my doubts even then.
Canada has mandated the end of ICE vehicle sales by 2035 and given ICE vehicle useful lives, 2050 would indeed see only EVs on Canadian roads