Changing Lanes is on its summer break: we’ll be publishing reposts here until the regular Tuesday cadence resumes in September. Today’s short special edition is for readers who want something new to read today, and to ask for a small favour.
Something new to read: Waymo and New York
Yesterday, Vital City published my piece on how New York City should handle driverless ride-hail: How to Make Driverless Ride-Hail Work in New York.
Waymo ran eight robotaxis in Manhattan and Downtown Brooklyn for seven months without incident, but when its permits to operate expired, Mayor Mamdani’s administration declined to renew them. So there are no robotaxis in NYC… for now. I’m certain that robotaxis will reach New York eventually, because no operator will leave the largest for-hire market in North America unclaimed forever. That means the question City Hall should be asking is not whether, but on what terms.
I argue for three, as follows.
Firstly, the City should require every robotaxi to buy or lease a medallion from a New Yorker who holds one today, which shapes the transition payments to arrive in proportion to the displacement. If you think that’s an outrageous concession to make, I understand your ire, but I hope that you understand this administration won’t accept no concession, and this one seems to have the least-objectionable consequences.
Secondly, it should condition licenses on serving the transit deserts of the outer boroughs. There are parts of NYC where most households have no car and about two-fifths live beyond a reasonable walk of the subway. These are areas where cheap reliable robotaxis can do the most good.
And finally, it should strike the bargain now, because the City’s leverage has a shelf life.
Waymo needs New York considerably more than New York needs Waymo. I hope the city recommends that this asymmetry is an asset… but one that will depreciate.
(I’d be remiss if I didn’t offer my thanks to Josh Greenman at Vital City, who commissioned and edited the piece.)
The SXSW election closes on 23 August
I wrote last week about my proposed SXSW 2027 session, “Robotaxis Are Coming: Five Decisions Your City Must Make”. For the proposal to become a reality, I need support from the community before the window closes on 23 August at 2359h Pacific.
Specifically:
Please cast a vote. It will only take a moment.
Then, having voted, please leave a comment on the proposal. The jury like votes, but they like comments more. Even one line is enough… on why the topic matters, or why you think I am the person to present it. Anything kind would be useful!
If you have already done both, thank you. If you have not, the link is here. Why not do it now?
And yet Waymo did go to NYC, only to be shown the door. So Waymo, who knew all these facts at the time, still tried to enter that market. This suggests to me that they believe, I think correctly, that they can scale to profitability faster in that market than other places in the USA.
> waymo needs NYC more than NYC needs waymo
I just don't think this is true. Waymo has far more demand than supply for the foreseeable future, and NYC city hall is a league of its own in terms of corruption, incompetence and desire for value extraction at the best of times (which the current administration isn't). Waiting a few years, build up a presence in easier cities and suburbs around the country, and letting the voters start getting upset and the city for banning them from the cheap car rides everyone else has seems like it'd put them in a much stronger bargaining position.